A 4-day practical training course for bankers, delegates will:
- Gain practical skills and confidence in preparing an economic situational report for any country as a key part of strategic planning for your sector.
- Gain a clearer and deeper understanding of the wider macroeconomy and the implications for the banking industry.
- Understand the drivers of economic activity at the macroeconomy level and the key role played by the various sectors, including banking.
- Identify the implications for short-term and longer-term economic growth and assess the impact on the banking industry.
- Appreciate the goals (and conflicts) of macroeconomic management – including sustainability of growth, low inflation, full employment and a satisfactory external trade position.
- Develop a critical awareness of the policy tools used by governments and central banks in any country including: fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rate and trade policy, as well as supply-side economics.
- Improve your understanding of the causes and consequences of business cycles and how these are likely to affect performance in the banking sector.
- Take part in interaction discussions concerning a wide range of current themes and issues of direct relevance to the banking industry.
- Become more critically aware of the importance of macroeconomic data and economic forecasts, nationally and internationally, essential for business planning and investment decisions.
Day 1
Introduction to the principles of macroeconomics
- Concepts, aims and policy
- Microeconomics vs. macroeconomics
- The macroeconomy and the corporate sector
- Macroeconomic policy choices
Class discussion: what are the most common economic objectives of government and why?
The measurement of economic activity
- Interpreting macroeconomic information: key questions
- National income accounting
- Real vs. nominal GDP
- Key macroeconomic forecast variables
Understanding the drivers of the economy
- The circular flow of income model
- Components of national expenditure
- The concepts of equilibrium and disequilibrium
Class discussion: What are the main challenges facing governments in their efforts to manage their economies?
Case study: Discussion based on the latest World Economic Outlook report from the IMF and as assessment of the implications for the banking industry
The determination of economic activity
- Consumption and savings functions
- Determination of the equilibrium level of national income
- Understand the meaning of deflationary and inflationary gaps
- The multiplier and accelerator effects
- A brief look at business cycles
Class discussion: what role does the banking industry play in the determination of economic activity? How is this role likely to develop?
Day 2
Aggregate demand and aggregate supply
- The meaning of aggregate demand
- Short-run and long-run aggregate supply
- Macroeconomic equilibrium
Class discussion: analysing the impact of “financial shocks” on the macroeconomy
Macroeconomic policy options
- Demand-side policies
- Supply-side policies
Class discussion: assessing the trade-offs in macroeconomic management
Understanding fiscal policy
- The meaning and impact of fiscal policy
- Fiscal policy and deflationary/inflationary gaps
- Fiscal policy and the management of business cycles
- The strengths and weaknesses of fiscal policy
Case study: Fiscal policy limitations in the context of membership of the euro
Economic growth and supply-side policy
- Supply-side economics explained
- Examples of supply-side economics
- The effectiveness of supply-side policies
- Implications for long-term economic growth
Class discussion: Are there limits to long-term economic growth? What are the implications for the banking sector?
Day 3
Inflation – causes, consequences and policy implications
- Causes of inflation
- Consequences of inflation
- Inflation and unemployment: the Phillips curve
- Policy implications of inflation
Class discussion: Is deflation “bad”?
Employment and unemployment
- Measurement of employment and unemployment
- Types of employment
- Employment policy
- Costs of unemployment
Class discussion: Europe’s long-term unemployment problem!
International trade and policy
- Balance of payments accounts
- Alternative policy options to current account imbalances
- Devaluation and the Marshall-Lerner condition
- The J-curve effect
Case study: Liberalisation of international trade: Implications for developed and developing countries – and the banking industry
Exchange rate regimes
- The meaning of exchange rates
- A review of exchange rate systems
- Fixed vs. floating exchange rates
- Determination of exchange rates
- Purchasing power parity explained
Case study: The impact of an undervalued renminbi for China and the global economy
Day 4
Understanding business cycles
- Business cycles vs. ‘long wave’ (Kondratief) cycles
- Causes of business cycles
- Theories of business cycles
- Consequences and policy responses
Case study: Gyrations in financial markets: implications for business cycles in the aftermath of the global financial crisis
Dynamics of the Economy
- A detailed model of macroeconomic relationships for strategic decisions
- Analysing the consequences of a recession or boom
- Implications for government policy and business
Case study: Preparing a country economic situational report for strategic planning in the banking industry
Review and key learning points.
Course summary and close
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The course director is an internationally respected educator. He has been on the faculty of the Cranfield School of Management and has contributed to the full range of the School's postgraduate and postexperience executive management programmes and workshops for nearly 30 years.
He specialises in teaching and research concerning Global Macroeconomics, Policy and Business Environmental Analysis. He was formerly Academic Dean of the School of Management (2003- 05), Pro-Vice Chancellor of Cranfield University (2005-08), Director of Graduate Programmes (1999-2003) and Director of the Full-Time MBA Programme (1989-1993). He established the School’s Economics Department in 1993 (which is ranked 2nd in the latest 2012 Financial Times Global MBA Rankings for its overall quality of teaching). He is currently Director of the Policy, Strategy & Performance Academic Community within the School with responsibility for all faculty and support staff in the areas of Economics, Finance & Accounting, Strategy, Entrepreneurship, Corporate Responsibility, Complex Systems and General Management Programmes. The course director has been a member of the School of Management’s Executive Board since 1994. He also holds Visiting Professorial appointments at various universities in Germany, Belgium, Austria, The Netherlands, Hungary and Ghana.
He is a recipient of: an 'Outstanding Professor' award in Hungary for his contribution to curriculum development, funded by the TEMPUS Programme of the European Union ; a ‘Distinguished Graduate Award' from the University of Ulster, and the 'Best Professor Award' from the German-based GISMA Business School. The course director has published 18 texbooks and research monographs as well as over 200 academic journal and business-related articles and reports. His research encompasses analysis of business developments in a changing world in terms of the macroeconomy, the role of government, the impact of technology, societal and demographic trends.
He is a frequent contributor at major national and international conferences and is frequently cited by the national media. He is a consultant to a number of UK and international companies in the areas of strategy and business environmental analysis, strategy formulation and management development. He has also acted as a consultant to several central government departments and public sector organisations. He has provided training programmes at all levels of management within most corporate sectors including banking, retail, manufacturing, oil & energy and professional services.
Interested in holding this course in-house? Please fill out your details and a member of our team will be in touch with more information.
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