Day 1
Registration commences at 8:30
Program runs from 9:00 - 5:00 daily
Advanced modeling
Overview
· Why create a model
· Review of good modeling practices
The main structure
· Historic P&L information
· Restating historic information
· Non-recurring items
· Historic B/S information
· Non-core assets
Forecasting the income statement
· Detailed revenue forecasts
· Fixed vs. variable costs: operating leverage
· Hedging policies
Taxation issues
· Current vs. deferred tax
· Estimating the effective tax rate
· Operating losses: carry-back and carry forward
Fixed assets
· Understanding capital intensity
· Maintenance vs. expansion Capex
· Understanding asset lives
· Forecasting disposals
· Impairment of assets
· Dealing with intangible assets
Working capital
· Components of cash and non-cash working capital
· Working capital ratios and their interpretation
· The relationship between working capital and margins
Provisions
· The different types of provisions and their accounting
· Impact of provisions on valuation
· Associates and investments
· Accounting for associates and investments
· Forecasting associates and investment income
Equity financing
· Minority interest- impact on equity financing
· Common shareholders- forecasting dividends and retained earnings
· Share buy-backs and rights issues
Debt financing
· Linking cash flow and debt requirements
· Different types of debt financing
Scenario analysis
· What are scenarios?
· Developing flexible scenarios with excel
Day 2
Multiples based valuation and cost of capital
Advanced ratio analysis
· Equity vs. enterprise value multiples
· Definitions
· Calculating EV: core vs. non-core
Assessing liabilities
· Dealing with different kinds of provisions
· Dealing with pension liabilities
· Hybrid financial instruments
· Options
· Off balance sheet liabilities
Equity multiples
· What do equity ratios tell us?
· Decomposing P/Es: linking growth, cost of equity and RoE
· Free cash flow yield
EV multiples
· What do EV multiples tell us?
· Choosing the most relevant multiples
· Theoretical EV ratios
Interpreting ratios
· Which ratios for which companies?
· Different ratios different answers?
Implied valuation
· Valuing a one business company
· Valuing a conglomerate: sum of the parts valuation
· Valuing cyclical and fast growing companies
· Interpreting results and deriving an implied valuation for the target company
Cost of capital
· What the theory says
· The elusive equity risk premium
· Is Beta a reliable measure of risk?
· Which cost of capital?
· Whose cost of capital?
· WACC in emerging markets
· Valuing negative cash flows
· Time Varying Cost of Capital
Day 3
DCF
Forecasting FCF
· Pitfalls in FCF calculation
· Estimating normalized FCF
Terminal value
· TV using the perpetuity method: volatility
· Uses and misuses of the exit multiples approach
· Liquidation value
· Why the value drivers method gives more stable and meaningful results
· Running sensitivities
Understanding returns
· Understanding ROCE
· Components of Capital Employed
· Decomposing ROCE
· The ROCE frontier: trade-off between higher margins and higher asset turnover
· The link between ROCE and ROE
Distortions in calculating ROCE
· The impact of changing asset lives
· The invisible assets: valuing intangibles
· Historic capitalization
· Estimating the current value of intangibles
Day 4
Absolute valuations: advanced issues
EVA as an alternative to DCF
· Definition
· Why use DCF and not DCF
· The mathematical equivalence of EVA and DCF
· Using EVA to better understand value creation
· The potential pitfall of EVA
· Building an EVA model
Valuing the tax shield: APV
· What is adjusted present value
· Why value the tax shield separately
· Appropriate discount rates
CFROI
· What is cash flow return on investment?
· Why use IRR to measure return
· IRR compared to accounting ROCE
· Using IRR to value a project
Valuing fast growing companies
· The concept of fades
· Fading ROCE and growth
· Choosing an appropriate fade period
· Impact of fades on DCF valuation
Day 5
Alternative methods and M&A issues
Scenarios and real options
· Normal distributions and DCF
· When the world is not normally distributed
· Valuing companies using binomial distribution
· Real options: myth or reality- the valuation
· Building a binomial model for a biotech company
Valuing distressed assets
· Why DCF is not appropriate
· Estimating default risks
· Distressed assets as options
Mergers and acquisitions
The drivers of M&A
· Horizontal and vertical integration
· Price
· Strategy
Valuing the target
· As a standalone
· Valuing synergies
· Estimating the price premium
Financing the acquisition
· Using shares or cash
· EPS accretion and dilution: does it reflect value added?
Modeling acquisitions
· Accounting issues
· New developments
· Calculating goodwill
· Proforma balance sheet
· Merging income statements