Day 1
Modelling
Overview
· Why create a model
· Good modelling practices
· Overall structure of the model
The main structure
· Historic P&L information
· Restating historic information
· Non-recurring items
· Historic B/S information
· Non-core assets
Review of initial model for case company
Fixed assets
· Understanding capital intensity
· Maintenance vs expansion Capex
· Forecasting overall capex
· Calculating depreciation
Working capital
· Components of cash and non-cash working capital
· Working capital ratios and their interpretation
· Forecasting working capital
Associates and investments
· Accounting for associates and investments
· Forecasting associates and investment income
· Impact on cash flow and B/S
Day 2
Modelling and Ratio Analysis
Equity financing
· Minority interest- impact on equity financing
· Common shareholders- forecasting dividends and retained earnings
· Share buy-backs and rights issues
Debt financing
· Linking cash flow and debt requirements
· Different types of debt financing
· Leasing vs ownership
Scenario analysis
· Developing fully flexible scenarios
· Identifying the key variables
Review of completed model for case company
Choosing appropriate comparable companies
· How the choice of comparables impacts the final valuation
· Choosing comparable companies in an emerging market context
· Value drivers: understanding industry dynamics
· Main factors affecting selection: size, geography, regulation, customers
· Other factors affecting comparability, e.g. free-float, capital structure, corporate finance activity
Equity vs enterprise value multiples
· Definitions
· Calculating EV: core vs non-core, assessing liabilities
Calculating recurring earnings
Equity multiples
· Main multiples: P/E and P/BV
· Decomposing P/Es: linking growth, Cost of equity and ROE
· Pros and cons of equity multiples
EV multiples
· Main EV multiples
· Choosing the most relevant multiples
· Pros and cons of EV multiples
Implied valuation
Interpreting results and deriving an implied valuation for the target company
Day 3
DCF and cost of capital
Cost of capital
· Why calculate a cost of capital
· The risk/reward trade off
· Impact of financial leverage on Value
· Market risk vs company specific risk
· Accounting for market risk: asset betas
· Financial leverage and betas
Equity investors
· Calculating Cost of Equity
· Estimating the equity risk premium
Debt financing
· Impact of taxation: The tax shield
· Calculating the cost of debt
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
· Market value of debt and equity
· Current vs target WACC
DCF
Forecasting FCF
· Length of the explicit forecast period
· Cyclical and growth companies
· Calculating FCF: recurring vs growth FCF
· Appropriate FCF
Forecasting of FCF for case company
Terminal value
· Beyond the initial period
· Estimating long term growth rates in emerging markets
· When should FCF be normalised?
· TV using the perpetuity method
· TV using the multiples method
· Running sensitivities
Review of initial DCF model.
Day 4
Advanced Issues
Understanding returns
· Understanding ROCE
· Components of Capital Employed
· Decomposing ROCE
· The ROCE frontier: trade-off between higher margins and higher asset turnover
The link between ROCE and ROE
Distortions in calculating ROCE
· The impact of changing asset lives
· The invisible assets: valuing intangibles
· Historic capitalisation
· Estimating the current value of intangibles
Alternative valuation approach: real options in emerging markets
· What are real options?
· Using real options to value fast growing companies
· Using real options to value natural resources companies
· Using real options to value distressed assets
Course summary and close