Financial Analysis Forecasting - Dar Es Salaam - Financial - Corporate Finance

An intensive 4–day course featuring:

Preparation of financial statements.
The profit and loss account and cash flow statement.
DCF valuation techniques.
DCF company valuation.
Key credit ratios.
Modelling cash flows.
Modelling the impact of an investment on cash flow.
Acquisition analysis.
Multiple based valuation methodologies.
The nature of accounting.
Lending in Leveraged Buy-Outs (LBOs).
LBO structuring.

Who should attend?

The course should appeal to:

Executives and managers.
Professionals in all functions.
Investment and commercial bankers.
Equity and fixed income investment managers.
Investment analysts.
Credit analysts and credit controllers.
Treasury managers.
Lawyers and newly-qualified accountants.
Company brokers and advisers.

Course objectives

At the end of the course you will have a sound understanding of:

How accounts and financial statements are compiled.
How to read a balance sheet and a profit and loss account and why the figures cannot always be taken at face value.
The nature of a cash flow statement and why it is especially useful in transforming accounting fiction into fact.
The tools and techniques of financial analysis.
How to calculate and use financial ratios to evaluate business performance and financial health
The key credit quality ratios.
Accounting scams, why they occur and how they can be spotted.
Some common methods for judging the viability of investment opportunities.
The nature and uses of financial valuation techniques such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).
Key design principles for building financial models in Excel.
The nature and uses of investor ratios such EPS, DPS, and P/E.
The key drivers of shareholder value and the methods used to calculate the value of a company such as enterprise value ratios.
Financial analysis for mergers and acquisition.
How leveraged buy-outs are valued, arranged and structured.
Exit strategies for private equity investments.

Day 1

Understanding financial statements and valuation

How financial statements are prepared.

Users and uses of financial information.
Financial accounting versus management accounting.
Fundamental accounting concepts.
How financial transactions are recorded and financial statements prepared.
The nature and importance of accounting standards.
Structure of a balance sheet.
Evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of a balance sheet.
Recognising the characteristics of the business from its balance sheet.
Evaluating financial well being from the balance sheet.
Solvency tests.

Case study: Critical examination of a company balance sheet against a competitor. Computation of key credit and liquidity ratios.

The profit and loss account and cash flow statement

Different measures of profit and why they each matter.
Understanding how profit is calculated in different businesses.
Making correct decisions using the profit and loss account.
Preparing a cash flow statement.
Evaluating a cash flow statement.
Impact of the company life-cycle on cash flow.
Financial flexibility: what it is and how to measure it.
Performance assessment using comparable company analysis.

Case study: Critical examination of key financial statements for large and small companies. Performance appraisal.

Modelling in Excel: the 10 golden rules

Layout.
File storage.
Model integrity.
Auditing the model.
Presenting the output.

Case study: Preparing a compliant model.

Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques

Capital structure.
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
Valuation using WACC.
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM).

Case study: Preparing a compliant model case study:

Calculating WACC.
Calculating cost of equity.
Regearing betav.

Day 2

Corporate valuation analysis

DCF based company valuation

Capital structure.
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
Valuation using WACC.
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM).

Case study: Calculating WACC, calculating cost of equity and regearing beta.

WACC valuation

Preparing cash flows.
Estimating the cash flows in the terminal value period.
Growth rates in the terminal value period.
Growth versus cash flow.
Sensitivity table for WACC valuation.
The steady state as a benchmark.
Steady state assumptions.

Case study: WACC enterprise valuation.

Key credit ratios

Definitions of gearing, interest cover (iscr).
Annual debt service cover (dscr) ratios.
EBITDA and debt.
Liquidity ratios.
Solvency tests.
Loan covenants.

Case study: Comparative analysis of the key credit ratios for a highly geared company employing several layers of debt.

Cash flow modelling

Modelling cash flows.
Modelling the profit and loss account.
Working capital.
Key assumptions underlying the projections.
Projections modelled in excel.
Testing sensitivity of the output to changes in key assumptions.

Case study: Participants develop detailed spread sheet models of cash flow projections and test sensitivity to changes in key parameters.

Day 3

Multiple based valuation and accounting scams

Impact of investment and tax on forecast cash flows

Modelling the impact of an investment on cash flows.
Assessing the impact on key credit ratios.
Mandatory capex versus discretionary capex.
Corporate taxation.
Leasing as an alternative to conventional debt.
Other taxes, VAT – cash flow effects.

Case study: Participants test cash flows models for capex assumptions: amount, timing – delays, reductions in revenues and other key arameters.

Multiple based valuation methodologies

The price earnings ratio (PER).
Valuation using PER.
Comparable company analysis.
Theoretical background.
Strengths and weaknesses.
Alternative multiples.
Ratios based on earnings before interest and tax (EBIT and EBITDA).

Case study: Valuation using PERs and Enterprise/EBIT ratios.

Accounting scams

The nature of accounting - science or alchemy.
Manipulating the balance sheet.
Window dressing.
Off-balance sheet items and their significance.
Revenue recognition and how to make sales 'take-off'.
Maximizing profit by minimizing costs and expenses.
Fraud - can it be detected?.

Case study: Discussion of an SEC report into a fraudulent accounting scheme.

Lending in leveraged buy-outs (LBOs)

Private equity investors.
Venture capital investment.
Types of deal (LBO, MBO, MBI etc).
Investment horizons.
Reviewing candidate companies.
Objectives of debt providers.

Case study: Participants examine possible candidate investments for a private equity firm. Review of recent LBO transactions and the associated debt financing.

Day 4

Transaction analysis

LBO structuring

The business plan.
Exit strategies.
Return analysis for the private equity investor.
Calculating the incentives for management and their participation.
Capital structure for the LBO.
Determining how much debt can be used.

Case study: Participants structure a LBO transaction and prepare forecast balance sheet, loan repayments and credit ratios.

Acquisition analysis

Modelling an acquisition in terms of the financial statements.
Assessing the funding structure.
Including synergies in the financial analysis.
Assessing debt capacity.

Case study: Participants model the financial statements for a potential acquisition.

Financing analysis

Examination of financing alternatives.
Quantifying the effect on the acquirer's financials.
Deferred consideration structures.
Earnings dilution and accretion.

Case study: Major acquisition by an international mining company using bridge financing.

High yield debt financing

Leveraged recapitalisation.
Holdco PIKs.
Using hybrid bonds.
Advantages for management.

Case study: Major hybrid bond refinancing by an international chemical company.

Course summary & close

Paul Richards
Paul Richards graduated from Cambridge University in mathematics and has a Masters degree in business administration from London Business School. He is also a CFA charter holder, an Associate of the Chartered Institute of Bankers, a Member of the Association of Corporate Treasurers and a Fellow of UKSIP.

Paul has more than 20 years investment banking experience specialising in domestic and international corporate finance at UBS (Warburg), HSBC and Map Securities (part of Skandia Insurance and Mapfre, Spain). He was also the chief executive of the London merchant banking operation of Credit Industriel et Commercial, a major French banking group.

As a result of this experience, Paul has extensive first hand experience of: Mergers and acquisitions; IPOs; bond issues; secondary market issues; privatisation; debt syndications; corporate treasury; equity valuation; investment analysis; security and derivative valuation; private equity; modelling; corporate governance; and compliance.

Paul won the 2004 Wincott Foundation Prize for his article "Lessons in shareholder value" on the boom and bust in new economy stocks, published in Professional Investor (the journal of the UK Society of Investment Professionals - the UK member society of the CFA Institute). He has taught MBAs and Masters to Finance students at Cass and Cranfield Business Schools for more than 12 years in a range of financial disciplines; and has trained staff at major City houses and in banks on different continents.
Courses run by this instructor
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